Predictions and Picks for the Timberwolves vs. Warriors Game: Thompson Cooks for the Home CrowdMarch 27, 2023
On Sunday, the Warriors and the Timberwolves will face each other with significant playoff implications at stake. Our NBA choices indicate that Klay Thompson will be an important cog in the Warriors’ quest to keep their home court advantage.
The weekend’s final game, the Minnesota Timberwolves will travel to California to take on the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State and Minnesota are both in the thick of things in the Western Conference, with just one and a half games separating them from sixth and seventh, respectively. With how close everything is in the West, a loss for either club might send them plummeting down the table.
I analyze the spread and total for this Sunday night shootout between the Timberwolves and the Warriors on March 26 and provide my best NBA picks and predictions.
Timberwolves vs Warriors picks and predictions
With the Dubs’ sharpshooter going hot and cold after being engulfed in flames to start the 2023 calendar year, betting totals on Klay Thompson has enraged punters this March.
After averaging 26.2 points per game over the previous two months, Thompson has cooled off significantly over the last six games, averaging just 20. He’s only making around a third of his three-point shots per game and scoring just over 17 points per game overall on 15.7 field goal attempts (42.6%).
This inconsistency has hurt prop bettors who took the Over on Klay’s output, as Thompson has failed to reach his point total in five of his last six games and eight of his past ten.
Nonetheless, Thompson’s home/away splits in running mirror those of his squad. He averages 24.7 points and 44.8% shooting at Chase Center, with an increase to over 42% from 3-point range for an average of 4.8 triples per home stand (compared to 18.6 points and 38.9% shooting on the road).
The Warriors have been on the road for eight of their previous 11 games, including five of the six games during their recent losing streak. Thompson scored 22, 38, and 21 points during the current three-game homestand. Most recently, he scored 21 points on 7-of-17 shooting against the 76ers (6-for-13 from deep).
Given his home court advantage, I’d expect him to score closer to 23 points today than the 21.5 points O/U he’s projecting for his game. He has a high floor at the point despite sharing touches with Stephen Curry because of his ability to take and make threes, especially at home.
Minnesota’s opponents have shot 37.3% this season from beyond the arc, demonstrating the Timberwolves’ poor perimeter defense (26th). When these teams last met at the end of February, Thompson took advantage of the Warriors’ shaky perimeter defense by sinking 6 of 14 three-point attempts and scoring 32 points in a 109-104 Warriors victory in San Francisco (although without Curry).
The Over/Under of 123.5 is high compared to recent games featuring the Warriors, and the Dubs are favored in this one. That means plenty of points to excite the Bay Area faithful, with Thompson providing a hefty portion of them.
Timberwolves vs Warriors spread analysis
With star guard Anthony Edwards uncertain after sitting out three straight games with an ankle injury, Minnesota entered as a 7-point road underdog in San Francisco. As of Sunday afternoon, the odds for this game had dropped to Timberwolves +6.5 due to reports of hope that Edwards will play.
With Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup at center on Wednesday, the Timberwolves improved to 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in their previous three games without Edwards. Towns scored 22 points in 26 minutes but may not play tonight.
The Wolves’ two wins over Atlanta and New York ended a rough losing streak that had lasted six games. Jaylen Nowell, another guard, is doubtful for tonight’s matchup with the Warriors.
Inside Chase Center, the Warriors transform into an entirely other machine. In contrast to their 9-28 ATS record and -6.5 net rating on the road, Golden State’s 25-11-1 ATS record and +7.7 net rating at home rank first in the NBA. As hosts, the Dubs have an advanced ranking of No. 3, but as visitors, they are ranked 28th.
Having won on the road twice and at home against Philadelphia on Friday, Golden State is on a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS). The Warriors have battled through a tough March travel schedule, with tonight’s matchup against the Timberwolves marking only their fourth home stand in the past dozen contests.
The streak of eight consecutive home wins and covers for the Dubs in front of the Bay Area fans dates back to February 13.
The Warriors had won 13 in a row, including a 109-104 triumph as 2-point home chalk against Minnesota on February 26. At the time, they were missing stars Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green. Wiggins’ absence from the team still needs to be addressed.
Timberwolves vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
As of Sunday afternoon, it has risen to 239.5 points, having started the day at 236.5.
The Timberwolves’ offense would benefit from the possible return of Edwards, and it would receive an additional boost from the addition of Towns to the lineup. The last two games for Minnesota have been more like track meetings, with the Gophers crushing their opponents by scores of 140-134 and 125-124.
With a terrible defense that has surrendered an average of 123.7 points against in their previous nine games, it’s no surprise that the Wolves have topped the total in four straight games. They rank 12th in offensive rating this month.
On Friday against the 76ers’ defense, the Warriors scored 120 points, making it three straight games in which they scored 120 or more. After the All-Star break, Golden State’s pace has been rated as the fifth fastest in the NBA. The University of Minnesota is a tempo powerhouse, ranking ninth in the country.
Overall, the Dubs’ defense has paid off for Under bettors at home, as they have a 14-21-2 O/U record in the Chase Center, making it an attractive option for basketball betting. Yet, Minnesota’s 21-15 O/U record on the road makes them a solid Over wager.
This is the third time this season that these sides have met, and both of their February games went Under (even with overtime needed on Feb. 1).